A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
