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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.