Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
